METR measures that Anthropic is advancing twice as fast, and the evidence is redacted

From August 12 to October 29, 2026, METR had access to Anthropic's internal data. The conclusion, published on November 5: capabilities are progressing about twice as fast as before October 2025, and AI explains most of it. Anthropic removed from the public report the majority of the evidence that METR considered most informative.

In short

• From August 12 to October 29, 2026, METR had access to Anthropic's internal data. Conclusion published November 5: capabilities are progressing about twice as fast as before October 2025, between 1.3 and 3 times, and AI would explain most of it.
• The comparison rests on the history of internal scores that Anthropic opened up; the confidence that "it is not compute" rests on redacted evidence; no bottleneck found, according to a redacted analysis.
• Anthropic redacted a majority of the evidence METR found most informative, with guidance sent on October 25 and tightened from October 27 to 29. METR: the public must rely on its judgment more than would be ideal.
• My view: a figure that cannot be replayed is an announcement. The redaction is understandable and scandalous. And METR, which takes no money from laboratories, lives on the access they open to it.

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